Picks & Stats

Transparency is what you want to see I don't use false numbers to improve myself

Track-R# / # of factors / Rank / Horse / Speed&Pace / Earnings&Form / Jockey&Trainer

I use a special weighing system

The percentage represents the proportion of Spd-Pa factors out of the total.

Dates: 16-17-18-19

1. % Numbers (Spd-Pa %)

  • Many winners (1st place) cluster around the 65–75% range.

  • Horses with higher percentages (80%+) tend to show up more in 2nd or 3rd place than winning outright.

  • Below 60% rarely produced winners — when they did, it was usually paired with a high Jky+Trn score.

Pattern: The sweet spot for 1st place is mid-60s to low-70s, not the highest % in the field.

🔹 2. $E+Frm (Earnings + Form)

  • Consistent 1st-place horses usually carried $E+Frm between 60–100 (scaled) or 600–700 in raw earlier races.

  • Low $E+Frm (under 40 / under 400) rarely produced winners unless paired with a top Total score.

  • Horses finishing 2nd/3rd often had $E+Frm just below the top horse in the field, suggesting it’s a strong “in the money” indicator.

Pattern: $E+Frm is a stability anchor — higher values correlate with reliable board finishes, but not always wins.

🔹 3. Jky+Trn (Jockey/Trainer)

  • High Jky+Trn (25–35 range) often tipped the scales for horses not leading in % or $E+Frm.

  • Winners frequently had mid-to-high Jky+Trn even when other columns were average.

  • Several “upset” winners came from horses with modest % and $E+Frm but very strong Jky+Trn.

Pattern: Jky+Trn serves as a tiebreaker factor — when a horse isn’t the fastest on paper, strong connections still push it into the winner’s circle.

🔹 4. Total Score

  • Nearly all winners are within the top 2 Total scores in their race.

  • Horses outside the top 2 rarely won, but they did place 2nd/3rd.

  • Gap between 1st and 2nd Total mattered: when the gap was wide (>10 points), the top horse usually won. When close (<5 points), the race was more likely to split between 2nd/3rd finishes.

Pattern: The Total column is the best overall predictor — top 2 totals dominate the board, with wider gaps signaling stronger win chances.

📊 Summary of Trends

  • Winning Profile: 65–75% Spd-Pa, solid $E+Frm (60–100), strong Jky+Trn (20+), and Top 1–2 Total score.

  • Board Hitters (2nd/3rd): Higher % (80%+), slightly lower $E+Frm, or weaker Jky+Trn but still top 3 in Total.

  • Upset Wins: Driven by elite Jky+Trn scores even when % or $E+Frm were midrange.